Simulate the hunt for Pirate Shop Access. Watch live chest openings or simulate up to five million players
opening a fixed number of chests. Compare normal odds with Treasure Hour.
PIRATE SHOP ACCESS · PER CHEST
1 / 137,500
Every chest is an independent roll
EXPECTED CHESTS
137,500
Mean until first win · selected mode
MEDIAN CHESTS
95,308
50% chance by this point
SINGLE CHEST CHANCE
0.000727%
Never increases after failed chests
5M PLAYERS · FIRST CHEST
≈36
Expected on one chest · selected mode
LIVE CHEST OPENING
One player · chest-by-chest animation
READY
READY TO OPEN
CHESTS OPENED
0
0s of simulated gameplay
CHANCE PER CHEST0.000727%
CHANCE BY THIS MANY CHESTS*0%
*Theoretical cumulative chance, not a pity meter10,000 chests/s playback
⚡ TREASURE HOUR2× odds for every chest in this modeled run
Current odds: 1 in 137,500· No pity system
POPULATION SIMULATOR
Up to 5,000,000 independent players · live results
READY
All players open the selected number of chests. Count how many get at
least one token, including repeat winners only once.
THEORETICAL PROJECTION
Expected unique winners—
Chance per player—
Time per player—
Total chests across all players—
PLAYERS SIMULATED0 / 5,000,000
PLAYERS WITH A TOKEN
—
At least one Pirate Shop
Access
PLAYERS WITHOUT A TOKEN
—
Did not obtain it
SIMULATED WIN RATE
—
Share of players who won
EXPECTED WINNERS
—
Probability-based expectation
HOW MANY PLAYERS WIN?Simulated vs theoretical
SimulatedTheoretical
Each player gets an independent random outcome. Treasure Hour assumes doubled odds for
the entire hypothetical run.
HOW LONG WOULD IT TAKE?
Average time to first token · assumes nonstop chest opening
EVERY 1 SECOND⏱
38.2 hours
1.59 days
137,500 seconds
EVERY 5 SECONDS⏱
191.0 hours
7.96 days
687,500 seconds
EVERY 10 SECONDS⏱
381.9 hours
15.91 days
1,375,000 seconds
The population panel also shows the time to complete a chosen chest budget. With 5 million
players opening simultaneously, elapsed time per player does not multiply by 5 million.
YOUR ODDS DON'T IMPROVE.
⚠ YOUR NEXT CHEST NEVER GETS BETTER ODDS.
Opening 100,000 chests without a win does not increase the next chest's probability.
Treasure Hour temporarily doubles the same fixed chance per eligible chest, not progressively. What
increases is your unconditional cumulative chance of having won at least once across all those
attempts. There is no assumed pity system.
7.0%
Won by 10k chests
50%
Won by median chests
63.2%
Won by mean chests
97.4%
Won by 500k chests
🌐 WHAT ABOUT 5,000,000 PLAYERS?
All players opening nonstop at the selected pace, with independent rolls.
26,113Expected winners within 1 hour
590,485Expected winners within 24 hours
More players means more total winners, not better
odds for any individual.
RUN HISTORY & EXPORTS
SAVED LOCALLY
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