TREASURE HUNT / REWARD LAB

HOW RARE IS THE TREASURE?

Simulate the hunt for Pirate Shop Access. Watch live chest openings or simulate up to five million players opening a fixed number of chests. Compare normal odds, Treasure Hour and an optional fan-made pity system.

PIRATE SHOP ACCESS · STARTING ODDS

1 / 137,500

Every chest is an independent roll

EXPECTED CHESTS

137,500

Mean until first win · selected mode

MEDIAN CHESTS

95,308

50% chance by this point

SINGLE CHEST CHANCE

0.000727%

Fixed odds without pity · fan-made boost when enabled

5M PLAYERS · FIRST CHEST

≈36

Expected on one chest · selected mode

LIVE CHEST OPENING

One player · chest-by-chest animation

READY

READY TO OPEN

CHESTS OPENED

0s of simulated gameplay

CHANCE ON NEXT CHEST0.000727%

CHANCE BY THIS MANY CHESTS*0%

*Theoretical cumulative chance, not a pity meter10,000 chests/s playback

IN-GAME CHEST PACE

PLAYBACK / RECORDING SPEED

⚡ TREASURE HOUR2× odds for every chest in this modeled run

🏆 PROPOSED PITY SYSTEMFan-made gradual boost · guaranteed by 50,000 chests

Next chest odds: 1 in 137,500 · No pity system

POPULATION SIMULATOR

Up to 5,000,000 independent players · live results

READY

All players open the selected number of chests. Count how many get at least one token, including repeat winners only once.

NUMBER OF PLAYERS

CHESTS PER PLAYER

TIME BETWEEN CHESTS

BONUS MODE

PROPOSED PITY SYSTEM

PRESENTATION SPEED

THEORETICAL PROJECTION

Expected unique winners—

Chance per player—

Time per player—

Total chests across all players—

PLAYERS SIMULATED0 / 5,000,000

PLAYERS WITH A TOKEN

—

At least one Pirate Shop Access

PLAYERS WITHOUT A TOKEN

—

Did not obtain it

SIMULATED WIN RATE

—

Share of players who won

EXPECTED WINNERS

—

Probability-based expectation

HOW MANY PLAYERS WIN?Simulated vs theoretical

SimulatedTheoretical

Each player gets an independent random outcome. Treasure Hour assumes doubled odds for the entire hypothetical run.

HOW LONG WOULD IT TAKE?

Average time to first token · assumes nonstop chest opening

EVERY 1 SECOND⏱

38.2 hours

1.59 days

137,500 seconds

EVERY 5 SECONDS⏱

191.0 hours

7.96 days

687,500 seconds

EVERY 10 SECONDS⏱

381.9 hours

15.91 days

1,375,000 seconds

The population panel also shows the time to complete a chosen chest budget. With 5 million players opening simultaneously, elapsed time per player does not multiply by 5 million.

YOUR ODDS DON'T IMPROVE.

⚠ YOUR NEXT CHEST NEVER GETS BETTER ODDS.

Opening 100,000 chests without a win does not increase the next chest's probability. Treasure Hour temporarily doubles the same fixed chance per eligible chest, not progressively. What increases is your unconditional cumulative chance of having won at least once across all those attempts. There is no assumed pity system.

7.0%

Won by 10k chests

50%

Won by median chests

63.2%

Won by mean chests

97.4%

Won by 500k chests

🌐 WHAT ABOUT 5,000,000 PLAYERS?

All players opening nonstop at the selected pace, with independent rolls.

26,113Expected winners within 1 hour

590,485Expected winners within 24 hours

More players means more total winners, not better odds for any individual.

RUN HISTORY & EXPORTS

SAVED LOCALLY

Completed runs are stored in this browser. Downloads work offline.

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